While Bangladesh is nearly as polarized as Egypt or Tunisia along the Islamist-secularist divide, its Monsoon Revolution may not end in failure.

Unlike in the Middle East, Bangladesh has a strong secular movement poised to replace the deposed authoritarian regime.

Fascism, characterized by its grip on the populace, is exemplified by Bangladesh’s longest-serving leader, Hasina, who was ousted by a revolutionary scaled uprising.

Supported by India, Hasina became increasingly authoritarian as the urban middle class viewed her as the sole protector of “secularism,” aligning with her despite her dictatorial behavior.

Although Islamists have played a role in both the Arab Spring and Bangladesh’s Monsoon Revolution—and remain among the winners in the aftermath—Bangladesh’s middle class may not be as inclined to reverse the revolution as their Arab counterparts.

A key reason for optimism in Bangladesh is that the secular Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is poised to gain power in the next elections, whenever they occur.

In contrast, the Arab world lacked a secular alternative to their dictators, which compelled the middle class to support oppressive regimes.

Rift between BNP and Jamaat

There seems to be an increasing rift between the BNP and its long-time Islamist ally, Jamaat-e-Islami (JI).

The shared animosity toward Hasina’s Bangladesh Awami League (BAL), which previously united them, is waning.

With BAL not participating in elections, the BNP has little incentive to maintain its alliance with JI, which may prefer to position itself as the main opposition rather than a subordinate partner in government.

As the relationship between the BNP and JI deteriorates, with leaders from both sides exchanging veiled criticisms, the middle class may come to view the BNP as a reliable ally in preserving secularism.

Currently, the BNP is led by Begum Khaleda Zia, although real power lies with her son, Tarique Rahman.

Khaleda, the widow of the assassinated president Ziaur Rahman, governed Bangladesh for a total of ten years from 1991 to 1996 and again from 2001 to 2006.

Unlike the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the BNP understands the intricacies of governance.

There is speculation that a new political party may emerge from the student protesters, who are widely seen as the driving force behind this revolution.

Should this occur, it could create another viable secular alternative to fascism, reducing the middle class's motivation to withhold support for the post-revolution political landscape.

If Bangladesh were to develop two large, mainstream secular parties, it would make it exceedingly difficult for the fallen fascists to stage a comeback and would significantly diminish the chances of a popular yearning for a return to dictatorship.

Additionally, the military is viewed with suspicion by secularists, partly due to its perceived role in the country's hilly regions, making a military coup supported by public sentiment less likely.

The question of Islamists Vs secularists

This doesn't mean secularists won't attempt to limit the rights and influence of groups they consider Islamist.

Indeed, the middle class might not have participated in the Monsoon Revolution had they been fully aware of the Islamists' involvement.

However, the reality in Bangladesh is that hope remains for secularists after Hasina’s departure to India. They can rely on the BNP to represent their interests, a condition that was lacking in the Middle East.

In this context, the BNP acts as both an obstacle and a safeguard for Islamists. Its presence helps prevent the middle class from demanding a "secular" dictatorship, ensuring that Islamists cannot become the only alternative.

That said, it doesn't guarantee the revolution's success.

A counterrevolution by loyal former and current military officers is still possible, as are challenges such as planned famines, price hikes, or engineered law-and-order crises, including major terrorist attacks or a series of smaller ones, which could lead the public to long for the safety and security that Hasina once provided, even at the cost of freedom.

India, Bangladesh’s (neo)colonial master, is making a last-ditch effort to label all alternatives to Hasina, including the BNP, as Islamist, which could pave the way for a counterrevolution.

However, Dr Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate and head of Bangladesh’s interim government, has explicitly criticized India for this tactic.

The visit of the Indian High Commissioner to the BNP office may indicate that India has temporarily abandoned this approach.

While there are uncertainties regarding Bangladesh's successful transition to democracy and the consolidation of that democratic system, it is clear that the conditions leading to the failures of the Arab Spring are not present in Bangladesh.

The monsoon revolution in Bangladesh may still fail, but it is unlikely to fail for the same reasons that led to the Arab Spring’s collapse.

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Md Ashraf Aziz Ishrak Fahim has a first degree in International Relations and Global Affairs from Mahidol University, Thailand, and an MA in Social and Political Thought from the University of Leeds, UK. He is currently a graduate student of Contemporary Islamic Studies at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar. He can be reached at [email protected]