After months of shifting polls, fluctuating betting markets, and a historic gender gap, the 2024 U.S. presidential election has arrived.

In the coming days, the world will find out whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump will become the next president and the leader of the free world.

With razor-thin margins expected and a complex vote-counting process, a clear winner may not emerge on Election Night.

Over 80 million voters have already cast early ballots, and a strong turnout is anticipated at the polls on Tuesday.

The election is likely to be decided by seven key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.

Due to the late counting of mail-in ballots—especially in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—the final outcome could take several days, as reported by outlets like The New York Times, The Washington Post, and the Associated Press.

This election marks the conclusion of a highly contentious race between Trump, the twice-impeached and four-time indicted former president, and Harris, the incumbent vice president who only entered the race in late July after President Joe Biden dropped out.

The campaign has also been marked by two assassination attempts targeting Trump.

As both candidates vie for the 270 electoral votes needed to win, all attention is focused on the critical "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

These Rust Belt states have consistently voted together in every presidential election since 1988, with one candidate sweeping all three.

In 2020, Joe Biden flipped them back to the Democrats after Trump had carried them in 2016.

Analysts say, if Harris secures all three of these states, she is likely to win the presidency, even if she loses all four Sun Belt battleground states—North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

However, for Trump, a win in any of the "blue wall" states—especially Pennsylvania—could open multiple paths to 270.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania but loses Wisconsin and Michigan, he could still secure a narrow victory, 271-267, by winning at least three of the Sun Belt states.

In this scenario, Kamala Harris would need to offset a potential loss in Pennsylvania by securing victories in at least two Sun Belt states.

Meanwhile, this strategy would allow Donald Trump to lose either Georgia or North Carolina (each worth 16 electoral votes) and still remain in contention for the presidency, say the analysts.

Who will get the African-American and Latino votes?

On the ground, the contest has largely remained a "boys versus girls" battle for a long period. Polls show Harris is performing significantly better among women, while Trump holds a strong advantage with male voters.

To counter Harris's dominance with female voters, Trump has focused on appealing to a key demographic: young men without college degrees.

One of the Trump campaign's more high-profile strategies has been its efforts to align with rappers in a bid to attract young, Black male voters—traditionally a strong Democratic bloc.

Trump has garnered attention by making a dramatic entrance to a 50 Cent song, calling the controversial, antisemitic rapper Ye a "complicated" but "really nice guy," and claiming that rapper Young Thug (aka Jeffrey Williams) has been treated "unfairly" by the U.S. legal system.

These messages resonate with many young male voters, particularly in the African American community.

Brook Sangers, a 27-year-old African American Uber driver from Astoria, New York, told Bangla Outlook, "He is cool and speaks straight. I would definitely vote for him."

Sangers said that he felt President Biden had made empty promises and failed to deliver over the past few years. "They [Democrats] speak in a language we don’t get. Trump is straightforward. This guy doesn’t play with words," he said.

According to MSNBC, Trump’s campaign has focused on attracting male voters under 50—especially those who are undecided.

This group, which comprises about 11% of the electorate in key battleground states, is often described as low-information, low-propensity voters.

These individuals typically don’t closely follow political campaigns and may not always turn out to vote. However, Trump’s strategy is to boost voter turnout among this group, a key factor in a close race.

Polling also suggests Trump has made inroads with African-American and Latino voters, two crucial Democratic constituencies, by focusing on younger male voters in these communities.

“If Trump manages to secure even a small share of the African-American vote in urban centers like Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee, Harris will need to counter this by building on Democrats' recent gains among white, college-educated suburban voters,” said Anna Orso, a Philadelphia-based journalist, speaking to Bangla Outlook.

In the 2020 election, African-American voters overwhelmingly supported Joe Biden over Donald Trump, with a decisive 92%-8% margin, while Latino voters backed Biden 65%-32%.

However, the latest October USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll shows Kamala Harris leading African-American voters by a narrower margin of 72%-17%.

A recent national survey by Florida International University also found Harris leading Latino voters 57%-33%, regaining some ground she had previously lost in this demographic.

In key battleground states, Harris's support among African-American voters remains strong, though it has dipped slightly compared to Biden's 2020 performance.

In Pennsylvania, Harris leads African-American voters 84%-16%, while in Michigan, she holds a 75%-25% advantage, according to Marist College polling. In Wisconsin, Marist's polling shows Harris with 63% support among non-white voters, a drop from Biden's 73% in 2020.

The female vote dynamics

Kamala Harris has clearly been leveraging her strong support among female voters.

A Suffolk University poll conducted from October 14 to 18 shows Harris leading Donald Trump by a 53%-36% margin among women.

Since women typically vote at slightly higher rates than men, this gender gap could give Harris a significant edge in the election.

Democrats are also optimistic about early voting trends, with women outpacing men by around 9 percentage points in early ballots nationwide.

This margin mirrors the one seen in the 2020 election when Joe Biden defeated Trump, suggesting strong support for Harris among female voters.

The Harris campaign has strategically focused on issues like abortion rights, particularly following the reversal of Roe v. Wade, hoping to rally female voters to secure a victory.

Meanwhile, Harris has also gained support from Puerto Rican voters, particularly after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a controversial remark about Puerto Rico at a recent Trump rally in New York. Hinchcliffe called the island a "floating island of garbage," igniting significant backlash.

According to journalist Anna, this controversy could “influence the election outcome in Pennsylvania, which has a large and growing Hispanic population, including a significant Puerto Rican community.”

A poll released by Noticias Univision and YouGov on Sunday shows Harris leading Latino voters in Pennsylvania 64%-30%, and Puerto Rican voters by a 67%-27% margin.

The poll also revealed that 67% of Pennsylvania Latinos, including 71% of Puerto Ricans, found Hinchcliffe's comment “more racist than humorous,” highlighting the potential impact of this controversy on the state's voting patterns.

It is to be noted that Kamala campaigned in Pennsylvania on the last day [Monday], as a part of an extensive tour across the state, which holds the most electoral votes (19) of any battleground state.

With the race in Pennsylvania expected to be tight, the state's Puerto Rican voters could play a decisive role in determining the outcome, Anna, who works for the Philadelphia Inquirer newspaper, told Bangla Outlook.

Anna also mentioned that while Harris has seen some slippage among voters of color, she leads Trump among white voters in these key swing states.

In Pennsylvania, Harris holds a 51%-47% advantage among white voters, while in Michigan, she leads 51%-48%, and in Wisconsin, her lead is 50%-48%.

"This suggests that Harris could offset any losses among voters of color by expanding her margins with white voters, particularly in suburban areas," added Anna.

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