The excessive use of groundwater for agriculture, combined with India's withdrawal of water from shared rivers, is rapidly driving the vast northern and northwestern regions of Bangladesh toward desertification. Experts are warning that the existence of rivers in these regions is being obliterated due to the Farakka and Teesta dams, which are also contributing to reduced rainfall and increased warming. If these conditions persist, the country will soon face a food crisis and unbearable hardships for its people.

In districts like Thakurgaon, Dinajpur, Naogaon, Natore, and Pabna, which are among the highest producers of rice, irrigation entirely depends on groundwater, especially during the Boro season. Recently, even the Aman season has required irrigation due to decreasing rainfall, further increasing the demand for groundwater.

Local farmers in Thakurgaon report that the groundwater level is dropping each year. Previously accessible at depths of 25 to 30 feet, water is now not found even at 50 feet, leading to an irrigation crisis. Similar conditions are reported in other northern districts, altering weather patterns and disrupting the regular sequence of seasons, with unusual changes between winter and summer.

According to researchers, the water crisis is most acute in Tanore Upazila of Rajshahi, located in the Barind region. Over the past few years, nearly all upazilas in Rajshahi, Chapai Nawabganj, Naogaon, and Natore have begun to experience this drought season crisis.

The Public Health Engineering Department states that decades ago, groundwater levels as deep as 60-70 feet could be found in the Barind area, but now these levels are no longer accessible. With rivers and streams drying up, agriculture is increasingly dependent on excessive irrigation, which continues to lower the groundwater levels.

The Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO), through a recent study conducted by the Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), indicates that the situation is deteriorating due to climate change, leading to new areas facing water crises.

A hydrological investigation and modeling study titled "High Barind Region Surface and Groundwater Situation" conducted between 2018 and 2021 across 25 upazilas in Rajshahi, Chapai Nawabganj, and Naogaon districts found that conditions in the Barind area are worsening over time due to climate change. From 1985 to 1990, the average groundwater level in the Barind area was 26 feet below the surface, with the deepest water level in Tanore at 68 feet. By 2010, due to the extraction of groundwater for drinking, irrigation, and fish farming, wells needed to be as deep as 50 feet.

Engineer Abdur Rashid, Executive Director of the Barind Multipurpose Development Authority (BMDA), states that while agricultural activities in the Barind area depend on groundwater, recent years have seen alarming over-extraction. Many are ignoring regulations and using deep and semi-deep tube wells, which has brought groundwater levels to a critically low state. He emphasizes the need to halt these practices.

Analysts attribute the increased use of groundwater to the long-term withdrawal of water by India through dams upstream on the Teesta and Padma rivers in the north and northwest, which has dried up many rivers and ponds in the area. This situation has also reduced rainfall in the region. Additionally, the cultivation of water-intensive crops like rice, wheat, and corn throughout the northern districts has increased the demand for water, which is largely being met by extracting groundwater.

Professor Dr. Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan Sajal of the Department of Geology and Mining at Rajshahi University notes that rainfall is decreasing annually in the region, leading to a continuous drop in groundwater levels. In some of the most rainfall-prone areas of the country, there is now no rainfall even during floods. He warns that if this trend continues, the region could deplete its groundwater resources within 25 to 40 years.

Dr. Sajal stresses that without increased rainfall and proper management to retain rainwater, there is no way to reverse this situation. He advocates for proper care of rivers, streams, and water bodies to mitigate these issues.