Uttar Pradesh propelled Narendra Modi's rapid ascent onto the national stage in 2014. A decade later, it's probably playing a pivotal role in diminishing his influence.

By evening, the Congress-led INDIA Bloc had captured 44 seats, with others leading in one, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Modi's BJP, was leading in just 35 seats.

Just to put the ongoing result into context,  in the 2019 polls, the NDA secured 64 seats, the BSP 10, the SP 5, and Congress just one.

The most powerful state in India also saw a resounding victory for the BJP in 2014, taking 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats

So, as of this moment, it is quite clear that despite the heightened religious fervor following the consecration of the Ram Temple in January 2024, the BJP in all likelihood is not going to secure a victory in Uttar Pradesh, reminiscent of its loss in the 1993 elections.

The demolition of the Babri Mosque on December 6, 1992, led to widespread communal unrest in Uttar Pradesh and the fall of BJP’s Kalyan Singh's government.

Despite the BJP being viewed as the champion of Hindutva amidst the charged religious atmosphere, the subsequent 1993 state elections saw them defeated by the alliance of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

That marked a significant political shift, with Mulayam Singh Yadav becoming the Chief Minister.

Fast forward to 2024, and history appears to have repeated itself. The consecration of the Ram Temple on January 22, 2024, sparked another surge of religious excitement across Uttar Pradesh.

Yet, four months later, the election results did not go in favor of BJP.

Political analysts believe that, similar to 1993, voters in UP once again cast their ballots along caste lines rather than on the Ram Mandir issue.

The BJP's ambitious slogan, "Ab ki baar 400 paar," appears to have backfired, as it fueled concerns about potential constitutional changes under a robust BJP victory.

The Congress capitalized on these fears, leading to a significant surge in their support.

The coalition between Samajwadi Party and the Congress seem to complement each other well. The Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party played shrewd politics by limiting the number of Yadav nominations to seven.

Instead, it ran for election on the wide PDA platform of pichhda, Dalit, alpasankhyak, or backward, Dalit, and religious minorities.

Analysts pointed out that over the last decade, the BJP has worked hard to develop backward caste groups who resent the Akhilesh Yadavs' supremacy under the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh.

Modi’s BJP specifically targeted highly backward castes such as the Nishads, Nonias, and Pals, providing them more representation at various levels of government.

However, in this election, the caste coalition appears to have weakened under the weight of a significant contradiction at the heart of BJP governments: upper castes continue to wield power disproportionately to their numbers.

Conversations concerning inflation and unemployment among lower caste voters frequently led to worries about ongoing caste inequality and that played a major part in BJP’s downfall here in this state.