Is this war? The Israeli-Hezbollah conflict is hard to define — or predict
UNB
Publish: 23 Sep 2024, 11:10 PM
Israel
is bombing targets across many parts of Lebanon, striking senior militants in
Beirut and apparently hiding bombs in pagers and walkie-talkies. Hezbollah is
firing rockets and drones deep into northern Israel, setting buildings and cars
alight.
But no one is calling it
a war - not yet.
Israeli officials say
they are not seeking war with Hezbollah and that it can be avoided if the
militant group halts its attacks and backs away from the border. Hezbollah also
says it doesn't want a war but is prepared for one - and that it will keep up
the strikes on Israel that it began in the wake of ally Hamas' Oct. 7 attack
until there is a cease-fire in Gaza.
Israel and Hezbollah
have repeatedly traded fire since then - but the intensity rose to another
level Monday, when Israeli airstrikes killed more than 270 people, according to
Lebanese officials. That would make it the deadliest day in Lebanon since Israel
and Hezbollah last went to war in 2006.
"If someone had
told me or most analysts in summer 2023 that Hezbollah is striking Israeli
bases in Israel, and Israel is striking southern Lebanon and parts of southern
Beirut, I would have said, okay, that's an all-out war," said Andreas
Krieg, a military analyst at King's College London.
The term hasn't yet been
applied to the current conflict because "there haven't been any boots on
the ground," but that might be "the wrong metric," he added.
Is there any agreed
definition of war?
Merriam-Webster defines
war as "a state of usually open and declared armed hostile conflict
between states or nations." Scholars generally expand that definition to
cover large-scale violence involving insurgents, militias and extremist groups.
But any attempt at
greater precision is difficult since armed conflicts run the gamut from states
clashing with tanks and fighter jets to lower-level fighting.
Sometimes states
officially declare war, as Israel did after Hamas' attack last year.
It has not made a
similar declaration with regard to Hezbollah, but it has linked its strikes
against the group to the war in Gaza, saying last week that allowing tens of
thousands of residents to safely return to the north is an objective in that
conflict. Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, also frequently talks about
an ongoing war with Iran and its allies along "seven fronts,"
including Lebanon.
States often refrain
from declaring war even when they are plainly engaged in one. Russia officially
refers to its invasion of Ukraine as a "special military operation"
and has banned public references to it as a war. The United States has not
formally declared war since World War II, even as it took part in major
conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Why does neither side
want to call it a war?
Part of the reason
neither Israel nor Hezbollah is using the word "war" is because they
both hope to achieve their aims without setting off a more severe conflict - or
being blamed for one.
"Though tensions
are flaring, the situation in southern Lebanon is not that of a full-scale war
as both Hezbollah and Israel hope to use limited means to pressure one
another," said Lina Khatib, a Middle East expert at Chatham House.
With its rocket and
drone attacks, Hezbollah hopes to pressure Israel to agree to a cease-fire with
Hamas - a fellow Iran-backed militant group - and to avoid being seen as bowing
to Israeli pressure.
Hezbollah has said it
would cease the attacks if there were a truce in Gaza, but the prospects for
such a deal appear remote.
Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to do whatever is necessary to halt the attacks so
that displaced Israelis can return to their homes.
"I think the
Israelis are trying to either tell Hezbollah, you come to the negotiation table
and we'll settle this through diplomacy, or we'll push you into a corner until
you overreact," Krieg said. "And that will be the all-out war."
What might a full-scale
war look like?
Until recently, experts
generally agreed that any future war between Israel and Hezbollah would look like
the war they fought in 2006 - but much, much worse.
For years, Israeli
officials warned that in any future war with Hezbollah, the army would exact a
punishing toll on Lebanon itself, destroying critical infrastructure and
flattening Hezbollah strongholds. It came to be known as the Dahiyeh Doctrine,
named for the crowded southern Beirut district where the militant group is
headquartered, and that suffered heavy destruction in 2006.
Hezbollah, meanwhile,
spent years expanding and improving its arsenal, and is believed to have some
150,000 rockets and missiles capable of hitting all parts of Israel.
The military build-up
and threats created a situation of mutual deterrence that kept the border
largely quiet from 2006 until October of last year. For most of the past year,
the region has been braced for the worst, but both sides have showed restraint,
and the talk of "all-out war" has been hypothetical.
That could change at any
time.
"We've gone up a
step, but we haven't yet made it to the penthouse floor," said Uzi Rabi,
the director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
at Tel Aviv University. "At the end, I don't see there's going to be any
alternative to a ground operation."
Is it definitely a war
if there's a ground invasion?
Any Israeli decision to
send tanks and troops into southern Lebanon would mark a major escalation and
lead many to categorize the conflict as a war. But the two don't necessarily
always go hand in hand.
Israel officially
declared war in Gaza nearly three weeks before it sent any ground troops in.
Israeli ground forces have been operating in the occupied West Bank for
decades, and in recent months have routinely launched airstrikes against
militants, without anyone suggesting it's a war.
A limited Israeli ground
incursion might still leave room for both sides to back down.
Of course, Lebanon would
likely see a ground invasion as a blatant violation of its sovereignty and an
act of war. But Beirut already accuses Israel of routinely violating its
airspace and of occupying disputed territory along the border.
In fact, the two
countries are already officially in a state of war, and have been since 1948.
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