Satellite photos show Israeli strike likely hit important Iran Revolutionary Guard missile base
UNB
Publish: 30 Oct 2024, 11:44 AM
DUBAI,
United Arab Emirates, Oct 30 (AP/UNB) - Israel's attack on Iran likely damaged
a base run by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard that builds ballistic
missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program, satellite
images analyzed by The Associated Press on Tuesday showed.
The damage at the base
in Shahroud raises new questions about Israel's attack early Saturday,
particularly as it took place in an area previously unacknowledged by Tehran
and involved the Guard, a powerful force within Iran's theocracy that so far
has remained silent about any possible damage it suffered from the assault.
Iran only has identified Israeli attacks as taking place in Ilam, Khuzestan and
Tehran provinces - not in rural Semnan province where the base is located.
It also potentially
further restrains the Guard's ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic
missiles it needs to stockpile as a deterrent against Israel. Tehran long has
relied on that arsenal as it cannot purchase the advanced Western weapons that
Israel and Tehran's Gulf Arab neighbors have armed themselves with over the
years, particularly from the United States.
Satellite photos earlier
analyzed by the AP of two military bases near Tehran also targeted by Israel
show that sites there that Iran uses in its ballistic missile manufacturing
have been destroyed, further squeezing its program.
"We don't know if
Iranian production has been crippled as some people are saying or just
damaged," said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and research fellow at the
International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran. "We've
seen enough imagery to show there's an impact."
Iran's mission to the
United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The
Israeli military declined to answer questions from the AP, but sent a previous
statement acknowledging it targeted "missile manufacturing
facilities" in the attack.
Images show major
building at Shahroud base destroyed
High-resolution
satellite images from Planet Labs PBC taken for and analyzed by the AP showed
the damage at the Guard's Shahroud Space Center in Semnan, some 370 kilometers
(230 miles) northeast of the Iranian capital, Tehran. Semnan also hosts the
Imam Khomeini Space Center, which is used by Iran's civilian space program.
The images showed a
central, major building at the Shahroud Space Center had been destroyed, the
shadow of its still-standing frame seen in the image taken Tuesday morning.
Vehicles could be seen gathered around the site, likely from officials
inspecting the damage, with more cars than normal parked at the site's main
gate nearby.
Three small buildings
just to the south of the main structure also appeared to be damaged. Iran has
been constructing new buildings at the base in recent months. Another hangar to
the northeast of the main building also appeared to have been damaged.
Iran has not
acknowledged any attack at Shahroud. However, given the damage done to multiple
structures, it suggested the Israeli attack included pinpoint strikes on the
base. Low-resolution images since the attack showed signs of damage at the site
not seen before the assault - further pointing to Israeli missile strikes as
being the culprit.
"We can't 100%
exclude the possibility it's something else, but it's almost certain this
building got damaged because of an Israeli attack," Hinz said.
Given that the large
building had been surrounded by earthen berms, that suggests it handled high
explosives, said Hinz, who long has studied the site. That central site likely
deals with solid propellant mixing and casting operations, he added.
Large boxes next to the
building likely are missile motor crates as well, Hinz said. Their sizes
suggest they could be used for Iran's Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and the
Fattah 1, a missile that Iran has claimed is able to reach Mach 15 - which is
15 times the speed of sound. Both have been used in Iran's attacks on Israel
during the Israel-Hamas war and the later ground invasion of Lebanon.
The strike at Shahroud,
coupled with others across the country, likely have put more pressure on Iran's
theocracy, particularly as it assesses the damage to its main weapon arsenal
and tries to downplay the attack.
"Due to
preparedness and vigilance of the Islamic Republic of Iran's armed forces, and
timely reaction by the country's air defense, limited damage was caused to some
of the points hit," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed in a
meeting with foreign diplomats Tuesday in Tehran. "Necessary measures were
taken immediately to restore the damaged equipment to operational state."
US worries Guard's space
program a cover for missile research
A short distance from
the destroyed buildings sits a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has
conducted a series of successful missions putting satellites into space using
mobile launchers. The Guard, which answers only to 85-year-old Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revealed its secret space program back in 2020.
The U.S. intelligence
community's 2024 worldwide threat assessment said Iran's continued development
of satellite launch vehicles "would shorten the timeline to produce"
an intercontinental ballistic missile because it uses similar technology.
Intercontinental
ballistic missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran is now
producing uranium close to weapons-grade levels after the collapse of its
nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for
"several" nuclear weapons, if it chooses to produce them, the head of
the International Atomic Energy Agency repeatedly has warned.
Iran has always denied
seeking nuclear weapons and says its space program, like its nuclear
activities, is for purely civilian purposes. However, U.S. intelligence
agencies and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program up
until 2003. Parchin, one of the two military bases near Tehran targeted by
Israel, saw a building linked to that program destroyed.
"Like with Iran's
nuclear program, you don't build the system itself, you build all the
technology under cover of a civilian program," Hinz said.
Then, Iran could make
the decision to pursue the weapon - or use its knowledge as a bargaining chip
with the West over international sanctions.
But for now, the
satellite photos suggest Iran is still trying to assess the aftermath of
Israel's attack.
"The picture that
is emerging is one of significant damage to Iranian air defenses as well as
missile launch facilities, both of which would be intended to show the Iranians
that they are vulnerable to further strikes if they attempt retaliation,"
an analysis published Monday by two experts at Britain's Royal United Services
Institute said.
END/UNB/AP/PR