Satellite images reveal China developing nuclear propulsion for aircraft carrier
UNB
Publish: 11 Nov 2024, 09:55 PM
BANGKOK,
Nov 11 (AP/UNB) - China has built a land-based prototype nuclear reactor for a
large surface warship, in the clearest sign yet Beijing is advancing toward
producing its first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, according to a new
analysis of satellite imagery and Chinese government documents provided to The
Associated Press.
China's navy is already
the world's largest numerically, and it has been rapidly modernizing. Adding
nuclear-powered carriers to its fleet would be a major step in realizing its
ambitions for a true "blue-water" force capable of operating in seas
far from China in a growing global challenge to the United States.
"Nuclear-powered
carriers would place China in the exclusive ranks of first-class naval powers,
a group currently limited to the United States and France," said Tong
Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in
Washington, D.C. "For China's leadership, such a development would
symbolize national prestige, fueling domestic nationalism and elevating the
country's global image as a leading power."
Researchers at the
Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California said they made the
finding while investigating a mountain site outside the city of Leshan in the
southwest Chinese province of Sichuan, where they suspected China was building
a reactor to produce plutonium or tritium for weapons.
Instead they concluded
that China was building a prototype reactor for a large warship. The project at
Leshan is dubbed the Longwei, or Dragon Might, Project and is also referred to
as the Nuclear Power Development Project in documents.
Neither China's Defense
Ministry nor Foreign Affairs Ministry responded to requests for comment.
Satellite images and
public documents helped identify likely carrier project
There have long been
rumors that China is planning to build a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, but
the research by the Middlebury team is the first to confirm that China is
working on a nuclear-powered propulsion system for a carrier-sized surface
warship.
"The reactor
prototype at Leshan is the first solid evidence that China is, in fact,
developing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier," said Jeffrey Lewis, a
professor at Middlebury and one of the researchers on the project. "Operating
a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is an exclusive club, one that China looks
set to join."
Drawing on satellite
images and public documents including project tenders, personnel files,
environmental impact studies - and even a citizen's complaint about noisy
construction and excessive dust - they concluded a prototype reactor for naval
propulsion was being built in the mountains of Mucheng township, some 70 miles
(112 kilometers) southwest of Sichuan's provincial capital Chengdu.
The reactor, which
procurement documents indicate will soon be operational, is housed in a new
facility built at the site known as Base 909, which houses six other reactors
that are operational, decommissioned or under construction, according to the
analysis. The site is under the control of the Nuclear Power Institute of
China, a subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation, which is tasked
with reactor engineering research and testing.
Documents indicating
that China's 701 Institute, formally known as China Ship Research and Design
Center, which is responsible for aircraft carrier development, procured reactor
equipment "intended for installation on a large surface warship"
under the Nuclear Power Development Project as well as the project's "national
defense designation" helped lead to the conclusion the sizable reactor is
a prototype for a next-generation aircraft carrier.
Satellite mages from
2020 to 2023 have shown the demolition of homes and the construction of water
intake infrastructure connected to the reactor site. Contracts for steam
generators and turbine pumps indicate the project involves a pressurized water
reactor with a secondary circuit - a profile that is consistent with naval
propulsion reactors, the researchers say.
An environmental impact
report calls the Longwei Project a "national defense-related construction
project" that is classified "secret."
"Unless China is
developing nuclear-powered cruisers, which were pursued only by the United
States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, then the Nuclear Power
Development Project most certainly refers to a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier
development effort," researchers wrote in a detailed 19-page report on
their findings shared exclusively with the AP.
Jamie Withorne, an
analyst at the Oslo Nuclear Project who was not involved in the research and
reviewed the findings, said Middlebury's team made a "convincing
argument."
"From the
identifying reports, co-location with other naval reactor facilities, and
correlating construction activity, I think it can be said that it is likely the
Longwei Project is housed at Base 909, and it could potentially be located at
the identified building," she said.
The research does not,
however, provide clues as to when a Chinese nuclear-powered carrier could be
built and become operational, she said.
Sarah Laderman, a senior
analyst with Open Nuclear Network, a program of the U.S.-based NGO PAX sapiens
foundation, said the findings were "carefully conducted and thoroughly
researched."
"Given the evidence
presented here, I see a compelling case made that China seems to be working
towards building a nuclear propulsion system for its naval surface ships
(likely aircraft carriers) at this location," said Laderman, who is based
in Vienna and was not involved in Middlebury's research.
Pursuit of a
nuclear-powered carrier
China's first carrier,
commissioned in 2012, was a repurposed Soviet ship, and its second was built in
China but based upon the Soviet design. Both ships - named the Liaoning and the
Shandong - employ a so-called "ski-jump" type launch method, with a
ramp at the end of a short runway to help planes take off.
The Type 003 Fujian,
launched in 2022, was the country's third carrier and its first to be
indigenously designed and built. It employs an electromagnetic-type launch
system like those developed and used by the U.S. Navy. All three carriers are
conventionally powered.
Sea trials hadn't even
started for the Fujian in March when Yuan Huazhi, political commissar for
China's People's Liberation Army Navy, confirmed the construction of a fourth
carrier. Asked if it would be nuclear-powered, he said at the time that would
"soon be announced," but so far it has not been.
There has been
speculation that China may begin producing two new carriers at once - one Type
003 like the Fujian and one nuclear-powered Type 004 - something that it has
not attempted before but that its shipyards have the capacity to do.
Matthew Funaiole, senior
fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' China Power
Project, said he doubts China's next carrier will be nuclear-powered. Instead,
he said, he would expect the People's Liberation Army Navy's fourth carrier to
focus on optimizing the existing design of the Fujian carrier with
"incremental improvements."
Nick Childs, senior
fellow for naval forces and maritime security at the International Institute
for Strategic Studies, said the Chinese "have taken an incremental
approach to their carrier development with a number of ambitions that will
evolve over time."
"For now, their
deployments have been relatively cautious, remaining largely within range of
shore support, but projecting influence and to some extent coercion within
their near waters."
Eventually, however,
"larger carriers more akin to their U.S. counterparts will give them more
options to project power," Childs said.
It takes several years
to build a carrier and bring it into operation, but developing nuclear
propulsion for its next generation of warships would eventually give China more
power to run advanced systems, such as electromagnetic launchers, radars and
new technology weapons, Childs said.
"As well as
obviating the need for the ship to refuel regularly and therefore giving it
much greater range, nuclear power means that without the need to carry fuel oil
for the ship there will be room aboard for fuel and weapons for its aircraft,
extending their capabilities," Childs said.
"Much will depend
on what overall size the next carrier is, but the addition of nuclear power
will represent a significant step further in China's carrier development with a
vessel more comparable to the U.S. Navy's carriers."
Zhao, of the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, said nuclear-powered carriers would provide
the Chinese military "with greater flexibility and endurance to operate
around strategic hotspots, especially along the First Island Chain, where most
territories disputed by China are located," said Zhao.
The First Island Chain
includes the self-governed island of Taiwan, which China claims as its own and
vows to annex it by force if necessary.
The U.S. is obligated by
a domestic law to supply Taiwan with sufficient weapons to deter invasion, and
it could provide assistance to the island from its bases in the Pacific in the
event of an invasion or blockade. Tensions also have risen in the South China
Sea between China and neighboring nations over territorial disputes and
maritime claims.
"These carriers
could also extend Chinese operations deeper into the Western Pacific, further
challenging the U.S. military's ability to 'intervene' in regional matters that
China views as best resolved by countries from the region only," Zhao said.
U.S.-China rivalry
Chinese President Xi
Jinping has tasked defense officials with building a "first-class"
navy and becoming a maritime power as part of his blueprint for the country's
rejuvenation.
The country's most
recent white paper on national defense, dated 2019, said the Chinese navy was
adjusting to strategic requirements by "speeding up the transition of its
tasks from defense on the near seas to protection missions on the far
seas."
The People's Liberation
Army Navy is already the world's largest navy with more than 370 ships and
submarines. The country also boasts powerful shipbuilding capabilities: China's
shipyards are building many hundreds of vessels each year, whereas the U.S. is
building five or fewer, according to a U.S. congressional report late last
year.
However, the Chinese
navy lags behind the U.S. Navy in many respects. Among other advantages, the
U.S. currently has 11 carriers, all nuclear powered, allowing it to keep
multiple strike groups deployed around the world at all times, including in the
Indo-Pacific.
But the Pentagon is
growingly increasingly concerned about China's rapid modernization of its
fleet, including the design and construction of new carriers.
That aligns with China's
"growing emphasis on the maritime domain and increasing demands" for
its navy "to operate at greater distances from mainland China," the
Defense Department said in its most recent report to Congress on China's
military.
And China's
"growing force of aircraft carriers extend air defense coverage of
deployed task groups beyond the range of land-based defenses, enabling
operations farther from China's shore," the report said.
End/UNB/AP/MB